Zhongxin Tourism (002707): Q1 deducted non-performance slightly increased focus on channel expansion, industry marginal improvement
I. Overview of the event The company’s 2018 annual report published by the company achieved operating income of USD 12.2 billion in 2018 and a ten-year increase in value1.
Net profit attributable to mothers was 23.57 million yuan, a decrease of 90% year-on-year; operating income in the first quarter of 2019 was 24.
5.8 billion, down from 0 previously.
9%; realized net profit attributable to mother to RMB 64.87 million, reduced by 1 for many years.
4%; net profit after deduction is 64.49 million yuan, an increase of 6.
Second, analysis and judgment Business analysis: The development of batch-to-zero integration has accelerated. In 19 years, the company achieved rapid sales in the fourth quarter by relying on franchising and expansion stores. The company achieved revenue of 27 in the fourth quarter.
800 million, a year-on-year drop of 1%, narrower than Q3.
In terms of business, the large-scale wholesale business was significantly affected by the shipwreck in Thailand. The revenue of Zhongxin itself and Zhuyuan International Tourism Wholesale Business respectively occurred 4% / 1% over the same period of the previous year, and the net profit of Zhuyuan decreased by 22%.
The retail side benefited from the impact of supplementing 300 stores, achieving a 12% growth and increasing its proportion of revenue by 2pct to 19%.
In addition, the company’s integrated marketing business and other businesses maintained steady double-digit growth, but the performance of Zhongxin Borui increased by 48% compared with 2017.
From the perspective of regional distribution of revenue, the company benefited from the acceleration of retail store expansion. The company’s revenue in southern China and central China achieved rapid growth. However, due to the shipwreck incident in Thailand, the original revenue accounted for a relatively high performance in the region.Only a slight increase of 2% is expected to be related to the growth rate of outbound tourism in first-tier cities due to saturation saturation.
The gross profit margin was under pressure, and the opening of stores to accelerate sales expenses was affected by the shipwreck in Thailand. The company’s overall gross profit margin decreased by 0 compared with 2017.
Among them, the gross profit margin of the wholesale business is 0.
8pct, the overall gross profit margin of the retail business decreased by 1.
1pct, but gross profit margin of direct-operated stores increased to 16.
7%, which is expected to be related to the sinking of stores and the sales structure of partner stores.
Expenses: Affected by the accelerated expansion of retail stores, the company’s sales staff compensation and rented property expenses increased by 30% / 20% in 2018, which led to an increase of 21% in sales expenses and an increase in the sales expense ratio1.
Management expenses increased slightly by 0 compared with the same period last year.
5%, mainly due to the provision of diversified equity incentive fees in 2017, which in 2018 decreased by 56%.
The company’s financial expenses increased slightly in 2018, mainly due to the increase in exchange gains due to accrued interest expenses on convertible bonds and the depreciation of the RMB in 2018.
In 2018, a large amount of impairment of goodwill caused short-term changes in performance and performance. In the fourth quarter, the company increased its asset impairment losses by approximately 1.
1.3 billion US dollars, resulting in a significant reduction in baseline net profit growth of 90%.
Including Beijing Kaiyuan Travel International Travel Agency Co., Ltd., ActiTravelGmbH (Germany Yuetiao Travel Company), Shanghai Youyi Network Technology Co., Ltd., accrued goodwill impairment of 67,3 million, and accrued bad debt loss of 29.37 million corresponding to accountsyuan.
In addition, the company also accrued 1556 million long-term equity investment impairment for Belgian Airlines, a wholly-owned subsidiary in which it operates.
The revenue growth rate in the first quarter of 19 was affected by the high base last year. The Zhuyuan consolidation led to a slight increase in net profit from non-returning mothers in 1Q18. Benefiting from the rebound in the industry’s prosperity, the company’s revenue / profit side achieved 10% / 20%.growth of.
At the same time, as the Q1 Thailand line is still recovering from the bottom this year, the base pressure of Q1’s performance this year has broken through. The slight increase in performance after deductions is expected to be mainly affected by the 30% distribution and consolidation of Zhuyuan.
In addition, the acceleration of the company ‘s zero-integration strategy led to a continued rise in gross profit margin. In 1Q19, the gross profit margin of the company increased by 1 pct to 13% compared with the same period last year.
However, during the period, due to the increase in the speed of the store and the increase in interest expenses on convertible bonds, it is expected that the company will use franchise expansion this year, and the pressure on the cost side will improve.
Third, investment suggestions The prosperity of outbound tourism in the first quarter gradually picked up. From January to April, the number of Chinese travel bookings to Europe further increased.
9% is better than 18 years. The growth rate of Japan and South Korea’s outbound tourism has also maintained a rapid growth. 合肥夜网 The growth rate of international airline transports from January to March has performed well.
In combination with the airline’s 19 summer and autumn flight schedules and the improvement of destination visa policies, we expect that the changes in the Q2-Q3 outbound tourism boom will continue to improve and gradually accelerate the trend of lower to higher levels.
As the leader of the outbound tourism industry, the company will continue to accelerate the pace of store expansion this year. The number of stores in 19 is expected to double over the 18 years. It will benefit the most from the continuous recovery of the industry in the future.
We expect the company’s EPS to be zero in 2019-2021.
49 yuan, corresponding to PE is 24, 19, 16 times. The company’s current forecast is at the bottom of history, and the institution’s position is reduced. For the first time, it is given a “recommended” rating.
Fourth, risk warning: destination risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk; store opening progress is less than expected.