Jack Co. (603337): Maintain high performance and comprehensively enhance competitive advantage

Jack Co. (603337): Maintain high performance and comprehensively enhance competitive advantage

Event: The company released its annual report. In 2018, it realized operating income of 41.

5.2 billion, an annual increase of 48.

98%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies4.

5.4 billion, an annual increase of 40.


Event comment: The company’s sales revenue growth rate is much higher than the industry growth rate, the market exchange rate effect is more significant, and the industry supply-demand relationship tends to oversupply.

1) From January to November 2018, one hundred complete machine enterprises in the industry counted by the China Sewing Machinery Association gradually completed the main business income of 196.

1.5 billion (fifteen + 15).

52%), a growth rate of 12 lower than in 2017.

85pp. Incremental sales of sewing machine products 655.

590,000 units (previously +12.


Among them, industrial sewing machines gradually sold 467.

01 million units (+18.


The company’s operating income grows by 48 per year.

98%, much higher than the growth rate of the industry, indicating that the “Eight and Eighth Differentiation” trend of the sewing equipment industry has strengthened and the market effect has become more prominent.

2) From the perspective of industry supply and demand, the market has returned to the normal state of production and sales balance from the pattern of supply and demand in 2017, and has tended to oversupply. The production and sales rate has increased from 126 in January 2018.

6% dropped monthly to November 79, 2018.


Affected by industry trends, the company’s industrial sewing machine production and sales rate declined slightly, and the inventory increased every 61.


We believe that under the background of the rapid growth of the industry and the tendency to oversupply, the company’s future growth will mainly be driven by the increase in market share, but the growth rate will improve. The quarterly data growth rate shows that the company’s sales revenue growth rate in the first quarter of 201860.

After a new high of 37%, 2018Q4 has been included to 37.


Production capacity has steadily expanded.

Since the establishment of the company, the production scale has been continuously expanded, and the production and sales capabilities have continued to increase. It has become one of the sewing equipment manufacturers with a breakthrough in the industry. In 2018, the production volume of industrial sewing machines reached 2.01 million units, an increase of 41.


The company has a number of advanced automated production equipment in the industry, and has formed automatic production of casting, machining, and coating. Among them, the automatic machining production line is the first in the sewing industry. Not only has the product quality steadily improved, but the production capacity has also been greatly improved.Guarantee, while releasing the Air Force, greatly improve production efficiency, reduce manufacturing costs, and gradually form the company’s core competitiveness of intelligent manufacturing.

In 2018, the company’s Jiaojiang plant was gradually put into use, and two precision automatic production lines were put into operation and mass production was achieved, and the scale effect of production capacity was prominent.

Empower all distributors to create new advantages in channels.

The company adheres to market-oriented and customer-centric, and provides comprehensive end-to-end intelligent manufacturing solutions to end-users through the coordinated operation of Jack, Bruce, Benma, Maika, and Webima.

The company continuously innovates in channel management, creates a good business environment, stabilizes the market structure, and enhances the confidence of dealers in promoting products. Through continuous improvement of the dealer selection system, the establishment of a strategic dealer team empowers all dealers and builds channelsNew advantages drive the expected development.

As of 2018, the company’s dealers and their distribution outlets in more than 130 countries around the world have reached more than 7,000, which provides a good guarantee for the market to quickly obtain company products and quickly serve customers.

In the overseas market, through the construction and operation of 14 overseas offices, dating localized employees, effectively promoting the construction and management of overseas sales channels, and helping sales growth in overseas markets.

Improve 南宁桑拿 the IPD process system, maintain high-intensity R & D investment, and speed up new product launches.

1) The company will make breakthroughs in research and development to drive the core power of enterprise development. In 2006, it introduced the advanced IPD (Integrated Product Development) product development model. In 2018, it and Huawei again optimized the IPD process system, reduced product development cycles, and reduced product development costs, More effectively converge the technical and commercial risks of the product, improve product competitiveness and market success rate.

2) The company maintains high-intensity R & D investment, and the R & D expense in 2018 was 2.0.5 billion, maintained at 4.

High intensity consumption of more than 5%.

3) The Sewing Machine Division initially launched a total of nearly 20 new products, which enriched product lines at different levels, and completed small-scale trial production and prototype design of multiple products at the same time.

The Bruce brand has completed the launch of Q5, R5, B5, X5 and other products. It has broken through various technologies such as short thread ends, thick performance, and switching between thin and thick sewing materials, and has been applied in many products.

The E80 cutting bed of the Tailoring Business Department continued to optimize and stabilize, and launched a variety of just needed spreaders and cutting beds.

A number of factors have led to a decline in the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin2.


In 2018, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 28.

08%, a decrease of 2 from the previous year.

Of which: 1) Gross profit margin of industrial sewing machines decreased by 1.

97pp, the main factors are: a, the average exchange rate of the US dollar against the Renminbi in 2018 decreased compared to the previous year; b, the difference in regional sales growth, the growth rate of the international trade regional sales revenue with relatively high gross margins gradually increased in the domestic market; c, the price of raw materialsThe annual growth rate is different; 2) The gross profit margin of cutting bed is reduced by 4.

75pp, mainly: a. Product structure impact: Especially the new products just need to gradually increase the sales of tailor beds; b, the proportion of sales of tailor bed distribution channels gradually increased; 3) The gross profit margin of foreign markets decreased.

29pp, mainly due to: a, the average exchange rate of the US dollar to the Renminbi in 2018 decreased compared to the previous year; b, the product structure factors of tailor beds, especially the launch of new tailor-made beds; c, the proportion of channel sales of tailor beds increased.

For the first time, there was a net decrease in operating cash flow.

Net cash flow from operating activities changed from positive to negative to -2,082.

530,000 yuan (previous year was 6).

There are three main reasons for the US $ 2.5 billion: 1) Report on the adjustment of consolidated supplier payment policies: Guide suppliers to expand automation equipment transformation and expansion, expand component production capacity, improve component quality, and gradually build a first-class supply chain system.The payment policy of commercial parts and components replaced the acceptance payment method with the cash payment method, resulting in a total decrease in accounts payable and bills payable at the end of 2018 compared to the end of 2017 by 3.

3.2 billion US dollars, reducing operating cash flow; 2) Inventory increase: the relative supply and demand substitution in the market in 2017, relative supply and demand balance in 2018 and the replacement of sewing machine market sales, inventory measurement at the end of 2018 increased by 2 in 2017.

51 ppm; 3) Increase in accounts receivable: The increase in sales in 2018 brought about the increase in accounts receivable and the 2017 market supply and demand caused the balance of accounts receivable in 2017 to exceed the normal level, and the sales repayment in 2018 returned to normal.Caused by.

Investment suggestion: We expect the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 to be 5, respectively.



At 72 ppm, the EPS is 1.



84 yuan, corresponding P / E is 24/17/15 times.

Considering that the company is the largest production and sales company in the global sewing machinery industry, the market competition pattern has a significant headline effect. The strong one is Hengqiang. The relative error is estimated. We maintain its “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: industry demand decreases, excess capacity risks; raw material prices rise, gross profit margins reduce risks; exchange rate fluctuation risks.

Zhengtong Electronics (002197): Winning bid for Ping An Technology’s large-scale IDC profit soon

Zhengtong Electronics (002197): Winning bid for Ping An Technology’s large-scale IDC profit soon
Event: Recently, the company received the Notice of Selection of Ping An Technology’s 2019 Computer Room Leasing and Procurement Project issued by the Procurement Management Center of Shenzhen Ping An Integrated Financial Services Co., Ltd., and identified the company as the single winner of the Ping An Technology 2019 Computer Room Project.The total projected amount is approximately RMB26.One million yuan. The successful bid for Ping An Technology highlights the core value of the company’s data center.1) The company won the bid for Ping An Technology’s 2019 computer room project. The lease period is 10 years, and the number of data center computer room racks is about 2,620. The total project amount is expected to be about RMB 26.One million yuan.This is the second consecutive year that Ping An Technology Computer Room Project has been selected after 2018, and the amount has significantly exceeded previous years.2) The big order is Ping An Technology’s recognition of the company’s IDC business capabilities, and it also highlights the value of the company’s first-tier cities’ core data centers.With the increasing demand of financial giants such as Ping An for the construction of financial information infrastructure, the company is expected to continue to win the bid in the future. The card is located in the core budget of the Greater Bay Area. In 2019, IDC business is expected to achieve large-scale profitability.1) The IDC business of the company in the two urban agglomerations (Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Xiangjiang River-Changzhou-Zhuzhou Urban Agglomeration) has a market-leading advantage. There are five self-built IDC distributed data centers.Reached 30,000, reached Tier4 level (the highest level in internationally recognized data center standards), that is, the financial 杭州桑拿网 class A standard construction.Customers who have settled in and have signed in are Baidu, Tencent, Youku, 360, JD, China Telecom, Ping An Communication, Changsha Municipal People’s Government, and so on.2) 2016-2018 is the investment period of IDC business, and the income and profit are under pressure in a periodical manner. Since the second half of 2018, the company has continuously won large orders from high-quality customers, especially Ping An Technology has continued to increase the IDC construction.Profit at scale. The target city is worth 7.5 billion U.S. dollars in 2020, maintaining the “overweight” rating.Based on key assumptions, operating income is expected to be 14 in 2018-2020.3.8 billion, 22.7.5 billion and 34.3.8 billion; 2018-2020 net profit attributable to mothers will be 0.0.6 billion, 1.0.6 billion and 2.09 billion.With reference to the evaluation of companies in the same industry, and considering that the highest quality financial industry customers account for a relatively large proportion of the profitability of the industry, the target market value for 2020 is 7.5 billion US dollars, corresponding to PE 36x.Maintain the “overweight” rating. Risk reminders: The progress of the cabinet on-line is not up to expectations; the company’s benefits in the Greater Bay Area are less than expected; macroeconomic risks; the risk that key assumptions are inconsistent with actual conditions.

Fosun Pharma (600196) Company Review: Innovative R & D Platform Reports Production of the First Domestic Trastuzumab Biosimilar

Fosun Pharma (600196) Company Review: Innovative R & D Platform Reports Production of the First Domestic Trastuzumab Biosimilar

Investment Highlights Event: On April 25, 2019, the company announced that its holding subsidiaries Shanghai Fuhong Hanlin Biotechnology Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Fuhong Hanlin Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd. developed trastuzumab for injection (biosimilar,That is, the recombinant anti-HER2 humanized transformed antibody for injection) was awarded a trial copy of the drug registration trademark review of the State Drug Administration, with the replacement number being CXSS1900021.

  Opinions: The innovation research and development platform has successively made efforts to report the first domestic biosimilar drug of trastuzumab.

Trastuzumab is an anti-HER2 humanized recombinant antibody researched by Roche (Gene Tektronix). It is mainly used to treat breast cancer with HER2 overexpression, metastatic gastric cancer or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma.

It went on sale in the United States on September 25, 1998 and was approved by the country in September 2002 under the trade name Herceptin / Herceptin.

As the world’s first targeted HER2 antibody, trastuzumab is the core of the positive control treatment plan for HER2 in breast cancer diagnosis and treatment guidelines. It is the first-line treatment for relapsed and metastatic advanced diabetes, adjuvant therapy for surgical treatment, and neoadjuvant therapy for breast cancer before surgery.And metastatic gastric cancer.

Global sales revenue for 2018 71.

3.8 billion US dollars, is the top 10 major biopharmaceutical products sold.

Due to price, trastuzumab has a penetration rate of only 25 in China.

About 6%, the stock penetration rate is less than 5%, and there is a big gap between the level ratio of more than 65% abroad.

The original research Herceptin entered the medical insurance catalog in 2017 at a price of 110,000 per person per year, and then quickly increased its volume.

In 2018, the number in China reached 2.7 billion; data from sample hospitals show that the growth rate of trastuzumab sales in Q1-Q3 single quarter of 2018 reached 164%, 139% and 326%, respectively; the third quarter single-quarter salesThe growth rate reached 75%.

We believe that the company HLX02, as a biosimilar of trastuzumab, directly enjoys the same generic name substitute, will become an affordable alternative medicine for patients with related diseases in the country, and promote the sharing of the large market after listing.

At present, the domestic companies that report trastuzumab and HER2 supplemented monoclonal antibodies 深圳spa会所 are only Sansheng Pharmaceutical and Fuhong Hanlin, and then about 5 companies are in clinical phase III.

Fuhong Hanlin is the first domestic trastuzumab biosimilar to be reported for replacement; Sansheng Pharmaceutical’s recombinant anti-HER2 humanized replacement antibody for injection was reported for replacement in September 2018 and is currently under review and approval.
  The three major varieties of rituximab, adalimumab and trastuzumab biosimilars have been prominently launched in 2019, and the pharmaceutical industry sector has ushered in structural upgrades.

After years of investment in the company’s biosimilar drug research and development platform, the company enters the harvest period every year. In February, the first rituximab biosimilar drug was approved for marketing. It is expected to be officially commercialized 北京养生会所 in April-May;Biosimilars are reported to produce alternatives and have entered priority review. In April, trastuzumab biosimilars were reported to be produced and replaced. We expect that these two varieties will tend to be approved for listing in 2019-2020.The business income structure is gradually upgrading from chemical generics to biosimilars, and ushering in new growth points.

  Earnings forecast and investment advice: We expect operating income to be 291 in 2019-2021.

13 ppm, 359.

53 ppm, 429.

16 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.

83%, 23.

50%, 19.

37%; net profit attributable to mothers is 34.

8.1 billion, 43.

2.7 billion and 54.

6.4 billion, an annual increase of 28.

55%, 24.

29%, 26.

28%; corresponding EPS is 1.

36, 1.

69 and 2.

13 yuan.

The company is one of the domestic leading companies in innovative medicines. The main business has a relatively stable growth and is estimated to be cheap. Starting from 2019, innovative medicines will gradually enter the harvest period and maintain a “buy” rating.

  Risk reminders: Outward M & A is not up to expectations; risk of failure of new drug R & D; risk of declining volume and scope of chemical generic drug purchases exceeding expectations.

Zhongxin Tourism (002707): Changes in Southeast Asian Destinations Accrue Goodwill and Travel Light

Zhongxin Tourism (002707): Changes in Southeast Asian Destinations Accrue Goodwill and Travel Light

The event company disclosed its performance report and realized revenue of 123 in 2018.

12 ppm, a 10-year increase2.

19%; net profit attributable to mother was 3,499.

640,000 yuan, an annual decrease of 84.


Brief comment on goodwill impairment and light forward, the company’s performance will be affected by two factors: 1) Southeast Asia is the main tourist destination for foreign tourists, and the company will also focus on it in advance. However, it was affected by Phuket, Thailand in Q3 last year.The impact of the island, the shipwreck, the volcanic eruption in Bali, Indonesia, and other events, the travel expectations are reduced, the impact has been extended to Q4, and the company’s tourism products need to be purchased in advance, the company’s advance payment in the third quarter of 2018 (mainly during the 11th period and the fourthSupplier funds such as quarterly air tickets) increased by 127.

11%, the total impact on the highest net profit of about 100 million US dollars; 2) since the company’s listing through the capital operation of the industrial chain upstream and downstream acquisition layout, the book gradually increased by 8.

1.4 billion goodwill. In 2018, the accountant provided goodwill impairment provisions of 60-90 million yuan.

After adjustment, the risk of future company performance will be reduced accordingly.

Zhuyuan’s 30% equity has been consolidated, increasing the performance of 2019 in the past three years.

14%, the compound strength of net profit reached 29.

60%, operating conditions are good, the current revenue accounted for more than 40% of Zhongxin, which can have a positive effect on the company’s performance.

Since the company’s senior management has acquired 70% of Zhuyuan, the management of the target has been completed, and the integration of business personnel, channels, and resources will not affect the operation of the two parties.

The merged company, as a private enterprise, has better employee incentive terms, and has gradually played an active role in corporate governance. It will continue to develop steadily and sustainably in the future.

Outbound tourism is basically targeted. From the perspective of big data, outbound tourism shows a warming trend in 2018. The number of Chinese outbound tourists has reached 149.72 million, an increase of 14.

7%, an increase of 7.

7 points.

Among them, the performance of overseas travel is good, and the cumulative passenger traffic of international routes has reached 6,366.

70,000 person-times, an increase of 14 in ten years.


After entering 2019, the growth rate of outbound tourism during the Spring Festival has a certain rate, but only 7 million people.

Considering that the base number of destinations in Southeast Asia has decreased this year, Thailand, the boycott of Q3 and Q4, has stopped falling and warmed 杭州桑拿网 up in December last year, and this year the visas of Japan and Singapore have been optimized again, which has promoted a better improvement of the destination tourism situation.effect.

Investment suggestion: We believe that the company’s future performance risk will be reduced, and the acquisition of Zhuyuan will promote performance.

It is expected that the EPS for 2019-2020 will be 0.

30, 0.

36 yuan, currently the corresponding PE is expected to be 24X, 19X, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk Warning: Macroeconomic downturn; Geopolitical risks affect destination selection.

Yutong Bus (600066): Supplementary expected performance index for downgrade 18Q4 gross margin increased month-on-month

Yutong Bus (600066): Supplementary expected performance index for downgrade 18Q4 gross margin increased month-on-month

Investment highlights: The company released its 2018 annual report: the company achieved revenue of 317 in 2018.

5 billion, New Year’s Eve 4.

4%; net profit attributable to mother 23.

0 billion, 26 from the previous decade.

5%; 18Q4 realized income of 123.

7 billion, 13 from the previous decade.

0%; net profit attributable to mother 11.

0 billion, 10% over ten years.

The company plans to generate a cash dividend of 5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 48%.

The company’s performance was in line with expectations and dividends exceeded expectations.

  The 18-year overall performance was in line with expectations, cash flow improved, and dividends exceeded expectations.

Company bus sales in 2018 6.

10,000 vehicles, down 9 every year.

5%, including new energy buses 2.

50,000, 0 in the past ten years.


The company’s revenue will temporarily decrease in 20194.

4%, attributed to mother’s net profit level 26.

5%, as expected.

The company’s operating cash flow in 2018 was 25.

800 million, commented on -17 in 2017.

5 billion markedly improved, the company’s dividend rate in 2018 was 48% (35% in 2017) exceeded expectations.

  The company’s Q4 gross profit margin, single-bike profit increased more than the same quarter-on-quarter, and the profitability of new energy vehicles was significantly 武汉夜生活网 better than the industry.

The company achieved sales of buses in 18Q4.

130,000 vehicles, 19 over the past decade.

0%, realized income of 123.

7 billion, a ten-year average of 13.

0%, net profit attributable to mother 11.

0 billion, 10% over ten years.

18Q4 company gross profit margin 28.

0%, a year to raise 0.

8pct, which is an increase of 0 from the previous month.

7 points.

The company’s average revenue of 18Q4 bicycles was 580,000, which was 4/9 higher than the previous month.

10,000, the average profit of the bicycle is 5.

20 thousand, the previous / chain up 0.


30000.The company’s gross profit margin and overall profitability continued to rebound in Q3 and Q4, and the profitability of new energy significantly exceeded the industry average.

Mainly because of the company: 1) 18Q4 new energy sales accounted for nearly 60%, a slight increase from the previous month; 2) new models launched after the 18-year transition period can meet the highest standards and get 1.

21 times the state subsidy; 3) After the 18-year transition period, the new energy vehicle terminal payment price is expected to increase by about 20,000.

  The company’s cost control ability and technical capability level are leading in the industry. It is expected that the company’s profit will gradually stabilize and pick up, maintaining the rating of “prudent increase”.

In the short term, the subsidy for new energy buses will gradually decline in 19-20 years, but the absolute amount of decline is decreasing year by year. Considering the industry’s general price increase and the company’s industry-leading cost control capabilities, we believe the company’s new energy cost reduction is-20 years can basically offset the displacement of compensation; in the long-term view, the domestic new energy bus industry will gradually clear, the company’s new energy distribution promotion is a high probability event, and the company’s new energy business is expected to make breakthroughs in European and other export markets.

According to the latest situation, we adjusted the company’s net profit attributable to mothers to be 23 in 2019-2020.


500 million, the first announced net profit attributable to mothers in 2021 25.

300 million, maintaining the rating of “prudent overweight”.

  Risk reminder: New energy bus sales are lower than expected, and new energy buses have safety incidents.

Wuliangye (000858): Shake off opponents to catch up with Maotai

Wuliangye (000858): Shake off opponents to catch up with Maotai

Investment recommendations suggest the future 3?
Five years of heavy storage in Wuliangye, grasping the pricing power and market influence brought by the improvement of Wuliangye’s quality and capacity, boots have brought high sales growth and continued price increases.
5 year golden cycle.

Reasons First of all, the three major improvement strategies of quality, efficiency and production capacity are expected.

The new leader of the company can deeply understand the gap between Wuliangye and Moutai, adjust the Wuliangye-based wine to 3 years, set the Wuliangye-based ratio to 20%, and implement 10 new capacity constructions. We believe thatWuliangye’s product 北京夜网 pricing power will be significantly improved, and Moutai’s supply will continue to grow slowly in the next three years, which will indirectly help Wuliangye’s volume and price rise.

Overall, the demand for high-end mass consumption is strong, and the sales volume of Wuliangye 2 in 2018 cannot match the high-end wave of mass liquor.

The sinking of Wuliangye’s channel will bring continuous heavy demand, and the existing channel dealers have a strong demand for Wuliangye’s brand agency.

We estimate 300?
The 800 yuan market size has reached nearly 10 inches, of which about 87.

5% is Luzhou-flavor liquor, and maintains a continuous growth of about 20%, which is conducive to the volume of Luliang Wulongye, while other flavors lack the support of the second-end consumer group.

Finally, by transforming Wuliangye’s premium wine ratio from 10% to 20% in the next few years, the profitability will be significantly improved, so that the proportion of series wine will be more conducive to the high-end of Wuliangye’s brand image.

Earnings Forecast and Estimates As we are optimistic about the improvement of profitability brought about by the future heavy volume of Wuliangye, we raise the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2019/201.

7% / 4.

3% to 164.


93 ppm, and due to the upward movement of the estimated centrality caused by excessive market sentiment, we raised our target price by 22% to 127 yuan, corresponding to 30 / 23X P / E in 2019/20 and currently corresponding to 18/2019/20.


The price-earnings ratio is 2 times, and the target price has 61% growth space. Maintain the recommended 北京桑拿洗浴保健 level.

Risks If the quality of Wuliangye can’t be kept stable, the volume will be vulnerable.

Zhongshun Jierou (002511): Expected benefit control of expected benefit cost of pulp price down

Zhongshun Jierou (002511): Expected benefit control of expected 西安桑拿 benefit cost of pulp price down

Key investment events: Zhongshun Jierou released the 2018 annual report, and the company achieved revenue of 56 in 2018.

79 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.

43%; net profit attributable to mothers4.

07 million yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.

59%; net profit after deduction of non-return to mother3.

930,000 yuan, an increase of 20 in ten years.


In the fourth quarter alone, the company achieved revenue of 15.

9.8 billion yuan, an annual increase of 24.

20%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.

94 ppm, a decrease of 8 per year.

08%; net profit after deduction of non-return to mother 1.

0.6 million yuan, an increase of 10 in ten years.


The optimization of product structure and the increase in prices caused a ton price increase, which put pressure on the upward pressure on pulp prices.

We estimate that the ton price of the company’s products in 2018 is 12,161 yuan, an increase of 4 per year.

88%, the increase in the price of tissue paper and the increase in the proportion of high-end products (in 2018, the sales revenue of Face, Lotion and natural wood series products accounted for more than 60%, an increase of about 20%) is the core reason for the ton price rise.

The gross profit per ton of the company’s products in 18 years was 4,141 yuan, an increase of 2 per year.


Net profit per ton was 871.

5 yuan, unchanged from 17 years.

The company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was 34.

1%, a decline of 0 per year.

8pct (Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 gross margins are 38.

8% / 34.

4% / 33.

2% / 31%, +2 for ten years.

4cpt / -1.

6pct / -1.

9pct / -1.


The rising pulp price is the core reason for the decline in the company’s gross profit margin. In 2018, the average price of coniferous pulp / broad leaf pulp was 6819/6321 yuan / ton, which was an increase of 29.

3% / 31.

1%, but the price increase has offset the upward pressure on pulp prices to a certain extent.

We judge that with the decline of the cyclical dividend of the papermaking industry and the decreasing margin of non-wood pulp conversion, the supply and demand pattern of the wood pulp industry may change. In 2019, the pulp price may mainly fluctuate in a downward trend, which is good for the company to release cost pressure.

Inventory pressure has eased slightly, and cost control has shown initial results.

As of the end of 2018, the company’s inventory was approximately 8.

600 million, compared with 18 in the previous quarter and 18% in the third quarter.4%, we think the core reason is that the company has accelerated the active digestion of inventory under the downward trend of pulp prices.

We estimate that the company’s raw material / finished product inventory is about 59 days / 33 days, respectively.

The company’s sales expense ratio in 2018 was 17.

8%, down by 1 every year.

3pct; management expenses (including R & D expenses) rate 5.

5%, increase by 0 every year.

1pc; financial expenses 1%, flat for many years.

The effective control of sales expenses indicates that the increase in the company’s channel investment is better than the improvement.

In terms of net interest rate, the company’s net profit in 2018 offset 7.

2%, zero for one year.

3pct (Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 net interest rate is 8 respectively.

1% / 7.

4% / 7.

6% / 5.

9%, ten years +0.

8cpt / + 0 pct / + 0.

2pct / -2.


The industry concentration is expected to increase, and the idea of leading high-end products will remain unchanged.

The tissue paper market size is nearly 100 billion yuan, and the market size growth rate from 2011 to 2016 is stable at 6.

More than 6%.

However, there are about 1,500 companies in the industry. The top four brands only account for about 35% of the market share, and CR15 is about 60%. There is room for improvement in the concentration of the industry.

Bringing along with consumption upgrade factors, brand value is becoming increasingly important.

In addition, the high price of pulp has made it difficult to survive the small and medium capacity, and the concentration of large factories has increased.

Zhongshun Jierou increased R & D investment under the background of consumption upgrade to create high-end products, with a view to achieving double growth in revenue and profits. In 2018, the company’s R & D expenses.

08 million yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.


On July 23, 2018, the company’s high-end new product “New Cotton Early White” cotton soft towel was officially launched.

At the same time, the report-scale companies increased sales of key products such as noodles, emulsions, and natural wood, and formulated distribution standards for major channels in order to increase the market share of high-end markets in each channel.

Equity incentives are going to the next city, and the company is expected to become a leader in tissue paper.

Following the launch of the first round of equity incentives in 2015, the company announced the stock option and restructuring stock incentive plan again in 2018. By binding the interests of employees and the company, it will increase employee motivation, aiming to impact revenue to 90 trillion in 2021 and seize life.Paper market share.

If the company achieves 9 billion revenues in 2021, the tissue paper market share will reach 9% -10%, and it is expected to become a leader in tissue paper.

Investment suggestion: We predict that the company will realize net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021.

1, 6.

2, 7.

20,000 yuan, an annual increase of 25.

8%, 22.

1%, 15.

5%, the corresponding EPS is 0.
39, 0.
48, 0.

55 yuan.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: Channel Expansion Is Less Than Expected, Industry Competition Intensifies Risk, Raw Material Price Rise

Wanda Film (002739): Wanda Film Acquires Formal Approval for Single-Screen Screening to Decrease Narrowing Turning Point

Wanda Film (002739): Wanda Film Acquires Formal Approval for Single-Screen Screening to Decrease Narrowing Turning Point

Key points of the report Description of events 1) Wanda Film released 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarter report: the company achieved a total operating income of 140 in 2018.

88 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.

49%, net profit attributable to mothers12.

95 ppm, with a ten-year average of 14.

58%, the company achieved total operating income of 39 in Q1 2019.

13 ppm, a ten-year average of 6.

98%, net profit attributable to mothers4.

26 ppm, a ten-year average of 21.


2) On April 29, the company received the “Reply for Approval of Wanda Film Co., Ltd.’s Issuance of Shares to Purchase Assets from Beijing Wanda Investment Co., Ltd.” (CSRC License[2019]No. 817).The film and television acquisition has completed the necessary budget decision-making and approval procedures, and there are no additional decision-making or approval procedures.

The event comment was affected by the decline of the movie market boom, the company’s performance improved, the proportion of non-box office revenue declined but the proportion of gross profit increased.

The company’s revenue growth rate is highly correlated with the national box office growth rate: the national box office growth rate in 2018 was about 9%, and the quarterly quarter of 2019 was about 8%, which affected the company’s weak revenue growth (+6 in 2018).

49%, -6 in the first quarter of 2019.

98%); in order to maintain a leading market share advantage, the company’s theaters and screens still maintain a rapid expansion rate (operating cost YoY + 9 in 2018.

27% YoY-3 in the first quarter of 2019.

89%), the cost growth rate is higher than the revenue growth rate, the company’s performance improvement; non-box office business revenue ratio1.

37 points to 35.

63%, but gross profit remained stable, and the proportion of gross profit increased by 1.

75pct to 78.


The operating efficiency is still the industry’s leading, and the single screen is expected to narrow the decline and stabilize.

The company’s box office, movie viewings, and market share ranked first in the country for ten consecutive years. In 2018, Wanda Cinemas accounted for about 天津夜网 14% of domestic cities, ranking first in the country, with a single screen area of about 166 million, replaced by 2.

79%, a narrower decline than last year, the turning point is on the horizon.

The entire industry chain of movies has been opened up, and the pan-entertainment platform has been established, and profitability is expected to continue to strengthen.

After Wanda Film’s acquisition is completed, the entire industry chain operation model and diversified sector layout will more easily replace the impact of box office volatility on performance under the existing model, and the stability of earnings will continue to increase.

Profit forecast: We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021 will be approximately 13.

4 billion, 16.

1.5 billion, 18.

9.3 billion, 杭州桑拿网 corresponding to approximately 29 PE.

2X, 24.

2X, 20.

7 times.

If considering the acquisition of Wanda Film, the pro forma net profit for 2019-2021 will be 22 respectively.

2.8 billion, 26.

8.4 billion, 31.

670,000 yuan, corresponding to PE of 20.

7X, 17.
2X, 14.
6 times.

Risk Warning: 1.

Industry policy risks and industry development are less than expected risks; 2.

Goodwill impairment risk.

Changbao (002478) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Oil Well Pipeline Revenue and Double-increasing Gross Profit Production Line Expected

Changbao (002478) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Oil Well Pipeline Revenue and Double-increasing Gross Profit Production Line Expected

Matters: The company’s 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarter report disclosed that the total operating income in 2018 was 53.

760,000 yuan, an increase of 53 per year last year.

85%, net profit is 5.

330,000 yuan, an increase of 233 every year last year.

13%, the basic EPS is 0.

49 yuan, ROE is 12.


Operating income for the first quarter of 2019 was 13.

15 ppm, an increase of 18 in ten years.

59, net profit 1.

48 ppm, a 171-year increase.


Comment: Seamless pipe production and sales increase.

In 2018, the company produced seamless pipes 58.

7 initially (at least +18.

57%), selling seamless tubes 54.

71 at least (+7.


Inventory 9 budget (+79 per year.


The increase in production and sales, and the inventory also increased. Inventories are mainly light tubes that cannot be sold directly. The increase in light tube inventory is mainly caused by the company’s gradual pipe production capacity slightly exceeding the front-end production capacity.

A brief summary of this paragraph.

The performance of the tubing casing sector rose significantly.

In 2018, the company’s oil casing products achieved operating income of 2.6 billion (times +74).

40%), achieving a gross profit margin of 23.

65% (+7.


Both revenue and gross margin have increased.

Boiler tube demand was weak last year, with operating income increasing, and previous revenue11.

8.3 billion (-6.

64%), but the overall 杭州夜网论坛 recovery of the seamless tube market, the gross profit of boiler tubes also rose3.

85% reached 15.


In the initial production line construction, supplementary management capacity was insufficient.

In 2018, the company started the construction of two new production lines for the high-end shale gas open-pipe intelligent production line project and special special-purpose pipe production line project.

The shale gas project is expected to be put into operation in the second half of this year. After the project is in production, the estimated annual operating income is about 1.6 billion and the total annual profit1.

100 million, it is expected that the construction and production of production lines will increase the company’s profits.

The special-purpose pipe production line project includes both front-end production lines and alignment production pipe production lines. According to the 18-month construction cycle, it can be completed in 2020. It is predicted that the increase in profits will mean an average of about 1 trillion. The medical services segment is in line with performance commitments.

The performance forecast of the target Shifang Second Hospital, Yanghe People’s Hospital and Dan County Dongda Hospital in 2018 is 1.

14.75 million yuan, the actual profit number 1.

1 ‰, although slightly lower than the predicted value, each target asset has achieved 90% of the profit forecast, which is in line with performance commitments.

Finally, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 90.32 million yuan, accounting for 19% of the company’s net profit.

Cash flow from operating activities is sufficient.

The company’s operating net cash inflow in 20186.

86 ppm (ten years + 20%) is 1 of the company’s net profit attributable to its parent.

4 times, sufficient cash flow and healthy capital turnover.

Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.

The first quarter was the traditional off-season for oil exploration and drilling, and the company’s performance still achieved once or twice, a 20% increase from the previous quarter.

Under the energy security strategy, this year’s upstream capital expenditure plan is a new high in recent years, and demand is expected to increase further. At the same time, the average internal price of the company’s main raw material steel this year has improved compared to last year.The performance is worth looking forward to.

It is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021 will be 6, respectively.

9.8 billion / 8.


200 million, corresponding PE is 9/7.


7 times.

The historical comparison of the combined company and the horizontal comparison of the industry, we believe that the company’s reasonable estimate is about 15 times, the conversion performance is released, and the combined company’s performance in the last four quarters has a reasonable market value change of 85.

5.4 billion, raising the company’s target price to 8.

91 yuan (previous average 7).

6 yuan), maintaining the “strong push” level.

Risk warning: Iron ore prices fell more than expected, and oil prices rose less than expected.

Two Three Four Five (002195): Copy the interesting headline growth path and reshape the mobile traffic ecology

Two Three Four Five (002195): Copy the interesting headline growth path and reshape the mobile traffic ecology

Event: The company fully upgraded Star Alliance 2 at the end of July 2018.

Version 0, launched the Star Alliance APP.

We recently experienced the gameplay of the Star Alliance APP and judged it as an important strategic upgrade of the company’s mobile terminal business.

Opinion: Origins-to cope with the dilemma of mobile-end traffic ecology.

The essence of the company’s business has always been a traffic platform, and the shift from PC-side traffic to mobile-side traffic is a trend of the times.

The company has a mature traffic system on the PC side, and can use the URL navigation / browser as a centralized entrance for traffic, but the company faces the problem of fragmented traffic entrance on the mobile side.

In order to cope with the dilemma of mobile traffic ecology, after careful consideration, the company launched the Star Alliance APP at the end of July 2018.

The goal is to create an “Internet artifact” for “town youth” and reshape the ecology of mobile traffic.

The latest Star Alliance APP, everyone can participate in it, and the 2345 platform has also been upgraded to a traffic entrance for everyone to participate.

The daily use of the Star Alliance APP (registration, check-in, watching news, searching for content, downloading third-party apps, etc.), 2345 will reward users with certain points (can be converted into cash).

Stimulate user activity and usage time through the point system in order to capture and activate a large amount of mobile terminal traffic.

The company expects to make the Star Alliance APP a “Internet artifact” for young people in towns.

Outlook—Expect a growth path to replicate interesting headlines.

Qu Toutiao is likened to the “grassroots version” of today’s headlines by the industry. Its rocket-like rise 四川耍耍网 speed is a dark horse that shifts the mobile Internet industry and is also an important beneficiary of the mobile Internet’s third and fourth tier cities.

The keywords of its operation “magic” are “grassroots” (the target user sinks) and “net earning” (activating users through the point system).

The Star Alliance APP imitates the operation strategy of Fun Toutiao and expects to replicate its growth path to capture new traffic dividends from the mobile Internet.

Investment suggestions: The company’s mobile terminal business has made an important strategic upgrade, launched the Star Alliance APP, and reshaped the mobile terminal traffic ecology by following the operation strategy of Quoting Headlines.

Specifically, when users use the Star Alliance APP daily (register, sign in, watch news, search for content, download 青岛夜网 third-party apps, etc.), 2345 will reward users with certain points (can be converted into cash).

Stimulate user activity and use time through the point system in order to get a lot of mobile traffic.

At present, the Star Alliance APP has made gradual progress. Active users, usage time, etc., users have maintained a relatively healthy state in a vertical direction.

We believe that once the promotion of the Star Alliance APP is successful, it is expected to replicate the rising paths of interesting headlines and fight a lot, and activate the company’s mobile terminal business.

At the same time, the company’s fintech business operations continued to be stable and the overall development momentum was good.

We are optimistic about the prospects of the Star Alliance APP, and the EPS is expected to be 0 in 2018 and 2019.

31, 0.

41 yuan, maintain Buy-A rating, 6-month target price of 8 yuan.

Risk warning: Star Alliance APP promotion progress exceeds expectations.