Zhongxin Tourism (002707): Changes in Southeast Asian Destinations Accrue Goodwill and Travel Light
The event company disclosed its performance report and realized revenue of 123 in 2018.
12 ppm, a 10-year increase2.
19%; net profit attributable to mother was 3,499.
640,000 yuan, an annual decrease of 84.
Brief comment on goodwill impairment and light forward, the company’s performance will be affected by two factors: 1) Southeast Asia is the main tourist destination for foreign tourists, and the company will also focus on it in advance. However, it was affected by Phuket, Thailand in Q3 last year.The impact of the island, the shipwreck, the volcanic eruption in Bali, Indonesia, and other events, the travel expectations are reduced, the impact has been extended to Q4, and the company’s tourism products need to be purchased in advance, the company’s advance payment in the third quarter of 2018 (mainly during the 11th period and the fourthSupplier funds such as quarterly air tickets) increased by 127.
11%, the total impact on the highest net profit of about 100 million US dollars; 2) since the company’s listing through the capital operation of the industrial chain upstream and downstream acquisition layout, the book gradually increased by 8.
1.4 billion goodwill. In 2018, the accountant provided goodwill impairment provisions of 60-90 million yuan.
After adjustment, the risk of future company performance will be reduced accordingly.
Zhuyuan’s 30% equity has been consolidated, increasing the performance of 2019 in the past three years.
14%, the compound strength of net profit reached 29.
60%, operating conditions are good, the current revenue accounted for more than 40% of Zhongxin, which can have a positive effect on the company’s performance.
Since the company’s senior management has acquired 70% of Zhuyuan, the management of the target has been completed, and the integration of business personnel, channels, and resources will not affect the operation of the two parties.
The merged company, as a private enterprise, has better employee incentive terms, and has gradually played an active role in corporate governance. It will continue to develop steadily and sustainably in the future.
Outbound tourism is basically targeted. From the perspective of big data, outbound tourism shows a warming trend in 2018. The number of Chinese outbound tourists has reached 149.72 million, an increase of 14.
7%, an increase of 7.
Among them, the performance of overseas travel is good, and the cumulative passenger traffic of international routes has reached 6,366.
70,000 person-times, an increase of 14 in ten years.
After entering 2019, the growth rate of outbound tourism during the Spring Festival has a certain rate, but only 7 million people.
Considering that the base number of destinations in Southeast Asia has decreased this year, Thailand, the boycott of Q3 and Q4, has stopped falling and warmed 杭州桑拿网 up in December last year, and this year the visas of Japan and Singapore have been optimized again, which has promoted a better improvement of the destination tourism situation.effect.
Investment suggestion: We believe that the company’s future performance risk will be reduced, and the acquisition of Zhuyuan will promote performance.
It is expected that the EPS for 2019-2020 will be 0.
36 yuan, currently the corresponding PE is expected to be 24X, 19X, maintaining the “overweight” level.
Risk Warning: Macroeconomic downturn; Geopolitical risks affect destination selection.